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With all activity, beyond just football, Crypto.com recorded trading volume of $350 million for the week, figures from The PM Pulse show. The newsletter, which is in partnership with Aldrin Research for monitoring industry trends, indicated that Crypto saw weekly growth of 41%. While Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for more than $15 billion in weekly volume, four others recorded activity of at least $300 million. Buoyed by a popular Sydney Sweeney ad, Novig increased volume by nearly 34% on the week.
Moving forward, prediction markets could see a bump from appearances by several high-profile teams in primetime during Week 2. On Thursday, the Buffalo Bills will make their regular-season debut at Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions. Enthusiasm among supporters of the “Bills Mafia” for the opening of the $2.2 billion stadium could pad weekly totals on prediction markets. New York is one of the nation’s largest markets for sports betting and predictions.
The week will conclude with a matchup on Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, the putative Super Bowl favourite. On Kalshi, the Rams had a 75% probability to defeat the Giants as of Wednesday afternoon.
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According to the German Press Agency, the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office, together with the Frankfurt tax investigation unit, the State Office for the Combat of Financial Crime in North Rhine-Westphalia and Frankfurt police, executed coordinated searches across 11 premises on Tuesday.
Over 100 officers participated in the operation. Authorities seized several high-value vehicles, froze numerous bank accounts and imposed an asset restraint order valued at around €82 million. An arrest warrant was also executed.
Prosecutors allege that five suspects had operated internet-based gambling services without the required German licences from at least July 2021. The volume of bets placed on these platforms reportedly exceeded €5.8 billion between mid-2021 and the end of 2023.
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For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.
The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.
As Marantelli says: “Let’s call a spade a spade.”