Wild Harlequin

What is Wild Harlequin?

August’s totals set a new record for ARC-reported and settled sales, reflecting the continued strength of the U.S. travel market and continued demand,” said Steve Solomon, ARC’s chief commercial officer. “The strong summer trends from June and July carried into August, with travel to both U.S. domestic and international destinations remaining steady from the prior month and above 2025 levels.”

Air travel is booming, but Las Vegas isn’t seeing the same lift, as tourism numbers remain turbulent.

Through July, the Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority (LVCVA) reported that visitor volume has rebounded only 0.5%. 2026 followed a difficult 2025, where visitation crashed 7.5%.

How to play Wild Harlequin

Beynon describes Flutter as “the highest-quality online betting franchise globally”, with FanDuel’s leadership position providing “significant long-term value”. The problem is that the market is increasingly questioning how much future earnings growth can be generated from that position as the industry matures.

DraftKings is a different proposition. Its share price went from $43.30 on 18 September 2025, to $21.75 upon market closure last week. Beynon says it “arguably offers the greatest operational upside if it can continue converting strong customer growth into sustained profitability”. Its prediction market strategy could also become an advantage if the new market proves complementary to sportsbook betting.

MGM Resorts International’s investment case is supported by Las Vegas, regional casinos, property assets and its 50% interest in BetMGM. Its own share price has been on a different journey to its online pureplay peers, having increased by 5% in a year, to $37.81 on 18 September.

How to play Wild Harlequin

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

The partnership with Yahoo Finance wraps up as prediction markets push for broader distribution across financial media, sports, and entertainment platforms. For Polymarket, the loss of the Yahoo Finance hub is one distribution channel, but other partnerships remain intact.