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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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In April, a federal jury sided with Skillz (now operating as Firy Inc.) on its claims that Papaya deceived consumers by utilizing computer bots in its head-to-head mobile games.

Three months later, Judge Denise Cote ordered Papaya to pay Skillz $719 million in damages for poaching players from its skill gaming platform on the belief that Papaya had more players and therefore facilitated considerably faster peer-to-peer pairing times.

Papaya, headquartered in Israel, quickly secured a temporary stay of proceedings from the Tel Aviv District Court and filed a Chapter 15 petition with Delaware’s U.S. Bankruptcy Court. The Chapter 15 petition seeks to prevent Skillz from initiating collection efforts until its appeals play out.

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“We had various iterations of the drafts internally probably going back at least a decade, and just never made it to the finish line for various reasons,” he explained.

The board is hoping that the proposal drafts or more or less finalised, though there will likely be input from stakeholders during the comment period and at the hearing. One group that typically weighs in on such matters, the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers, did not respond to a request for comment by Friday’s deadline for publication. Depending on the amount of feedback or potential objections from the Nevada Gaming Commission, the new standards could be adopted and published by year’s end.

Overall, it’s been a busy stretch for the board since the start of 2025. In that time the regulator has issued five multimillion-dollar anti-money laundering fines to entities on the Las Vegas Strip, an unprecedented run of sanctions for America’s gambling capital.