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“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”

Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”

Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.

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In 2017, Rovito donated $5,000 to Grasso’s unsuccessful campaign for Illinois attorney general. Grasso returned that money about a month later after a television station questioned the contribution, according to Patch. 

Grasso did not explain the reason for that earlier return.

Grasso has also had a professional relationship with Rovito. Patch reported that the mayor, an attorney, has represented the restaurateur in civil matters. A pasta dish made of “fresh tomato sauce and basil, tossed with a touch of olive oil, and topped with fresh ricotta” at Capri Ristorante is also named “Linguini alla Mayor Grasso”

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However, due to its role as a a state-owned bank, and ongoing scrutiny around betting in Brazil, Caixa has come under political pressure, and its launch in the market has been postponed on several occasions despite it having paid the BRL30 million ($5.9 million) licence fee.

In April, under pressure from Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Caixa postponed its launch until 2027 at the earliest.

Brazil is currently gearing up for a general election next month and Weizer said this had delayed Playtech’s launch in the regulated market, although he didn’t specifically name Caixa as its client.