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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.
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The company cited analyses from the Office for Budget Responsibility which suggested previous gambling tax rises had reduced expected tax receipts, including a £500m reduction in forecast receipts for 2029-30. This revenue, writes David, would flow to the black market.
A new report commissioned by Euromat, and produced by Regulus Partners and Helios, has estimated that Europe’s black market has sustained a compound annual growth rate of 18% between 2019 and 2026, and will be worth up to €13 billion by the end of the year.
Entain said it had requested meetings with government officials to present its concerns directly and facilitate engagement between ministers and frontline shop staff before final budget decisions are made.
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