Fiesta Fortune

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The consumer battle in prediction markets is increasingly visible. Kalshi, Polymarket and newer entrants are expanding their sports products, while DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood and a host of others are investing in exchanges, distribution and market-making capabilities.

In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

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Ahead of the government’s Autumn Budget in October, Entain CEO Stella David cautioned that doubling the current MGD rate to 40% could result in widespread closures of betting shops and significant job losses, while potentially reducing tax revenues for the government.

A potential MGD rise was first reported in the The Financial Times, as Chancellor John Healey is allegedly looking to raise the tax, on the recommendation of the Social Market Foundation, which proposed the increase in a recent report.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham had already announced the government’s intention to scrap “aim to permit” for betting shops as well as insisting that AGCs will now need planning permission to function.

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This is Midnite’s third ASA ruling this year. Last month, the operator came under scrutiny for an ad that suggested that “gambling was an escape from personal problems”. The ASA received 125 complaints on the offending ad and the company was ordered to remove the advertisement. 

Another June ruling was not upheld.

In a separate case, the ASA examined display advertising for White Hat Gaming’s Casimba and The Grand Ivy Casino brands, which had appeared on HLTV.org – a specialist Counter-Strike 2 e-sports website – in March 2026.