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“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
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The company reported approximately £3.6 billion of net debt at the end of June, with reported leverage of 3.1x underlying EBITDA. Online underlying EBITDA fell 5% in the first half despite 7% growth in online net gaming revenue. The tax impact has been substantial.
The UK government increased Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) from 21% to 40% from 1 April. Then from April 2027, a new 25% General Betting Duty rate for remote betting will apply, although remote bets on UK horse racing are excluded from the new rate.
Entain said the higher RGD had a £56 million negative impact on first-half EBITDA. In Britain, operators are dealing with government policy and higher taxes. In America, the main threat is competition. The problems are different, but they hit the same group of stocks.
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In a rare punitive move, commissioners also directed the Minnesota Attorney General’s Office to investigate the cooperative for potential statutory violations, which carry fines between $100 and $1,000 per infraction.
The commission also agreed with the state Department of Commerce’s assessment that the cooperative’s actions were driven by concerns over lost electricity sales rather than legitimate safety risks.
Commissioners pointed to evidence suggesting the tribe may have already been overcharged compared to other member customers.